Critical Radarby SAFETEE

Knowledge · Situation in Germany

Blackout in Germany: how likely is it?

The blackout question has been asked more often since the attacks on Berlin's power grid and the outage in Spain and Portugal. This page shows what authorities say, which major disturbances have occurred so far and how a blackout differs from a regional power outage.

Will there be a blackout in Germany in 2026 or 2027?

The German government still considers a large-scale, prolonged power outage very unlikely. There is no official percentage. What has occurred recently are regional outages lasting several days, in Berlin in September 2025 and January 2026, each after arson attacks. The last major disturbance in the European interconnected grid with outages in Germany was on 4 November 2006.

As of · SAFETEE editorial team · responsible: Marc Riegel

What is a blackout, what is a power outage?

The German government describes a blackout as a large-scale outage that hits many people at the same time. An ordinary power outage, by contrast, is local and usually short. In 2011 the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag examined the consequences of a prolonged and large-scale power outage (working report no. 141).

The difference matters for any assessment: the Federal Network Agency's statistics measure short everyday interruptions, on average 11.7 minutes per final consumer in 2024. That figure says little about a blackout. The numbers are on the page Power outages in Germany.

What do authorities and grid operators say?

The German government classifies large, long power outages in Germany as extremely rare and still very unlikely. The Federal Network Agency's security of supply monitoring, adopted by the federal government on 3 September 2025, considers supply secure until 2035 provided that up to 22.4 GW of controllable capacity is added, or up to 35.5 GW if the energy transition is delayed.

ENTSO-E, the association of European transmission system operators, considered Europe well prepared in its Winter Outlook 2025/2026 of 20 November 2025; it named risks only for Cyprus, Ireland and Malta. The editorial team had no Winter Outlook 2026/2027 available as of this page.

Which major disturbances have there been so far?

Major power outages and grid disturbances relating to Germany and Europe
DateAreaExtentCause
25 Nov 2005Münsterlandaccording to media reports up to 250,000 people, in places for dayswet snow and storm brought down pylons
4 Nov 2006Western Europe, including parts of Germanymillions of households, about two hoursa line across the river Ems was switched off, followed by overload and a split of the grid
8 Jan 2021Continental Europegrid split into two parts for about an hour, only few consumers disconnectedhigh power flows with low stability margins
28 Apr 2025Spain and Portugalcomplete outage in both countries, short disruptions in south-west Franceinteraction of several factors, including voltage control and oscillations
9 Sep 2025Berlin-Johannisthalaround 50,000 customers, around 60 hoursarson attack on pylons
3 Jan 2026South-west Berlin45,400 households and 2,200 business customers, according to media reports until 7 Januaryfire at a cable bridge over the Teltow canal

None of these events was a nationwide outage. The selection is not complete; it shows the cases most often cited in the debate.

What does this mean for 2026 and 2027?

The sources describe two different risks. The first is a failure of the overall system, meaning too little generation or an unstable interconnected grid. The German government and the Federal Network Agency rate this risk as low. The second is damage to individual grid points caused by weather, technology or attacks. Such outages occurred twice in Berlin within four months and lasted days.

This is an assessment by the editorial team, not a forecast. The Critical Radar states its own probability only in approved forecasts with a due date and reasoning.

What should businesses and construction sites prepare?

For planning, a regional outage lasting several days matters more than a nationwide blackout: who needs to be reachable, what runs on backup power, and how are the site or facility secured when access systems and communication fail? The BBK's preparedness recommendations are on the page Power outages in Germany.

Under the KRITIS umbrella act, operators of critical facilities must cover such cases in their risk analysis and resilience plan; the act names backup power supply as an example of measures to maintain operations (section 13 (3)).

What the Critical Radar adds

The Critical Radar shows incidents affecting power and rail infrastructure on the map of Germany, with source and official assessment, and keeps forecasts on sabotage and the supply situation with probability and due date. On the due date the editorial team openly states whether a forecast came true.

Forecasts with probability and deadline How forecasts are made

Questions and answers

Frequently asked.

Will there be a blackout in 2026?

The German government considers a large-scale, long power outage very unlikely. There is no official probability in per cent. Regional outages lasting several days occurred in Berlin in 2025 and 2026.

What is the difference between a power outage and a blackout?

A power outage is local and usually short. A blackout is a large-scale outage that hits many people at the same time and can last a long time.

Has Germany ever had a blackout?

None of the sources evaluated here mentions a nationwide outage. The largest disturbance with outages in parts of Germany was on 4 November 2006 in the European interconnected grid; it lasted about two hours. In the Münsterland region, power failed in November 2005 after snow and storm, in places for days.

Does the Critical Radar state its own probability?

Only in forecasts approved by the editorial team, each with a due date and reasoning. This page summarises the situation from public sources.

Sources

All sources were accessed on the date shown. Figures are reproduced unchanged; our own calculations are marked as such. This page is a situation summary, not legal advice.